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Treasure Beach vs Lime Hall Academy — Premier League 2019

Treasure Beach
Treasure Beach
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
11/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4St. Elizabeth Technical High School Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Treasure Beach57%
×Draw22%
Lime Hall Academy21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treasure Beach
1.91
Lime Hall Academy
1.08

Treasure Beach creates 77% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 13 away

creates per match

Treasure Beach
0.97
Lime Hall Academy
0.38

allows per match

Treasure Beach
1.79
Lime Hall Academy
2.85

finishing

Treasure Beach+0.00on par
Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treasure Beach ↓

Lime Hall Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Treasure Beach or draw
79%
Treasure Beach or Lime Hall Academy
78%
Draw or Lime Hall Academy
43%

Winning margin

Treasure Beach wins by 2+
33%
Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Treasure Beach 1+ goals
85%
Treasure Beach 2+ goals
57%
Treasure Beach 3+ goals
30%
Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
66%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
29%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Treasure Beach (draw refunded)
73%
Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treasure Beach at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Lime Hall Academy away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treasure Beach attack 0.97 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 1.91

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.38 + Treasure Beach defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Treasure Beach scores more
57%
level
22%
Lime Hall Academy scores more
21%

Treasure Beach at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Treasure Beach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Treasure Beach 1–0 Lime Hall Academy

Treasure Beach beat Lime Hall Academy 1-0 in Premier League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at St. Elizabeth Technical High School Soccer Field in Santa Cruz.