Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tre Penne vs Tre Fiori — Coppa Titano 2020

Tre Penne
Tre Penne
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tre Fiori
Tre Fioriadvanced
4/28/2021Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Semi-finalsCampo Sportivo di Acquaviva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tre Penne42%
×Draw26%
Tre Fiori32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tre Penne
1.47
Tre Fiori
1.25

Tre Penne creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tre Penne
2.00
Tre Fiori
1.41

allows per match

Tre Penne
1.08
Tre Fiori
0.94

finishing

Tre Penne+0.00on par
Tre Fiori+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Penne ↓

Tre Fiori →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tre Penne or draw
68%
Tre Penne or Tre Fiori
74%
Draw or Tre Fiori
58%

Winning margin

Tre Penne wins by 2+
20%
Tre Fiori wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tre Penne 1+ goals
77%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
43%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
18%
Tre Fiori 1+ goals
71%
Tre Fiori 2+ goals
36%
Tre Fiori 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tre Penne (draw refunded)
57%
Tre Fiori (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Penne at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Tre Fiori away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Tre Fiori defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

Tre Fiori attack 1.41 + Tre Penne defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tre Penne scores more
42%
level
26%
Tre Fiori scores more
32%

Tre Penne at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tre Penne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa Titano: Tre Penne 0–2 Tre Fiori

Tre Fiori beat Tre Penne 2-0 in Coppa Titano on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva in Acquaviva.