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Tre Penne vs Domagnano — Coppa Titano 2020

Tre Penne
Tre Penneadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Domagnano
Domagnano
9/23/2025Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tre Penne60%
×Draw22%
Domagnano19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tre Penne
1.95
Domagnano
0.99

Tre Penne creates 97% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tre Penne
2.00
Domagnano
0.90

allows per match

Tre Penne
1.08
Domagnano
1.90

finishing

Tre Penne+0.00on par
Domagnano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Penne ↓

Domagnano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tre Penne or draw
81%
Tre Penne or Domagnano
78%
Draw or Domagnano
40%

Winning margin

Tre Penne wins by 2+
35%
Domagnano wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tre Penne 1+ goals
86%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
58%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
31%
Domagnano 1+ goals
63%
Domagnano 2+ goals
26%
Domagnano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tre Penne (draw refunded)
76%
Domagnano (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Penne at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Domagnano away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Domagnano defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.95

Domagnano attack 0.90 + Tre Penne defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tre Penne scores more
60%
level
22%
Domagnano scores more
19%

Tre Penne at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tre Penne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa Titano: Tre Penne 3–0 Domagnano

Tre Penne beat Domagnano 3-0 in Coppa Titano on September 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo in Città di San Marino.