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Tre Fiori vs Tre Penne — League #404 2026

Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tre Penne
Tre Penne
L. Peluso 63'
F. Berardi 32'
2/22/2026League #404League #404 · Round 22Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tre Fiori40%
×Draw25%
Tre Penne35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tre Fiori
1.50
Tre Penne
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tre Fiori
2.00
Tre Penne
1.64

allows per match

Tre Fiori
1.13
Tre Penne
1.00

finishing

Tre Fiori+0.00on par
Tre Penne+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Fiori ↓

Tre Penne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tre Fiori or draw
65%
Tre Fiori or Tre Penne
75%
Draw or Tre Penne
60%

Winning margin

Tre Fiori wins by 2+
19%
Tre Penne wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tre Fiori 1+ goals
78%
Tre Fiori 2+ goals
44%
Tre Fiori 3+ goals
19%
Tre Penne 1+ goals
75%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
40%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tre Fiori (draw refunded)
54%
Tre Penne (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Fiori at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Tre Penne away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Fiori attack 2.00 + Tre Penne defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tre Penne attack 1.64 + Tre Fiori defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tre Fiori scores more
40%
level
25%
Tre Penne scores more
35%

Tre Fiori at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tre Fiori will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
F. Berardi↳ L. Peluso
63'
L. Peluso
90+4'
M. Sancisi
Tre
Tre
Matteo Cecchetti
Manager: Matteo Cecchetti
Nicola Berardi
Manager: Nicola Berardi

Tre Fiori 0 – 2 Tre Penne

Tre Penne beat Tre Fiori 2-0 in League #404 on February 22, 2026.

Goals: F. Berardi (32'), L. Peluso (63').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini in Fiorentino.