Travnik 3–0 Vis Kosova: Result & Stats

Travnik

FT

3 – 0

Vis Kosova

8/17/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 1Stadion Pirota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Travnik50%

×Draw25%

Vis Kosova25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TravnikExpected goals in this matchVis Kosova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.04

Travnik

1.58

Vis Kosova

1.04

Travnik creates 52% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 61 away

1.46

creates per match

1.21

0.88

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Travnik

1.46

Vis Kosova

1.21

allows per match

Travnik

0.88

Vis Kosova

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Travnik+0.00on par

Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Travnik ↓

Vis Kosova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Travnik or draw

75%

Travnik or Vis Kosova

75%

Draw or Vis Kosova

50%

Winning margin

Travnik wins by 2+

26%

Vis Kosova wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Travnik 1+ goals

79%

Travnik 2+ goals

47%

Travnik 3+ goals

21%

Vis Kosova 1+ goals

65%

Vis Kosova 2+ goals

28%

Vis Kosova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Travnik (draw refunded)

67%

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Travnik at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 81 matches

Vis Kosova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Travnik attack 1.46 + Vis Kosova defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vis Kosova attack 1.21 + Travnik defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Travnik scores more

50%

level

25%

Vis Kosova scores more

25%

Travnik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Travnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff