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Travnik vs Tuzla City — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Travnik
Travnik
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tuzla City
Tuzla City
D. Haracic 90', 52'
H. Alibegovic 68'
A. Hrustanovic 10'
11/8/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 12Stadion Pirota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Travnik64%
×Draw22%
Tuzla City13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Travnik
1.81
Tuzla City
0.68

Travnik creates 166% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 27 away

creates per match

Travnik
1.44
Tuzla City
0.48

allows per match

Travnik
0.87
Tuzla City
2.19

finishing

Travnik+0.00on par
Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Travnik ↓

Tuzla City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Travnik or draw
87%
Travnik or Tuzla City
78%
Draw or Tuzla City
36%

Winning margin

Travnik wins by 2+
38%
Tuzla City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Travnik 1+ goals
84%
Travnik 2+ goals
54%
Travnik 3+ goals
27%
Tuzla City 1+ goals
49%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
15%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Travnik (draw refunded)
83%
Tuzla City (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Travnik at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.87 · 82 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Travnik attack 1.44 + Tuzla City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tuzla City attack 0.48 + Travnik defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Travnik scores more
64%
level
22%
Tuzla City scores more
13%

Travnik at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Travnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Hrustanovic
52'
D. Haracic
68'
H. Alibegovic
90'
D. Haracic
Travnik
Tuzla
O. Bajrić
Manager: O. Bajrić
S. Petrović
Manager: S. Petrović

1st League - FBiH: Travnik 4–0 Tuzla City

Travnik beat Tuzla City 4-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 8, 2025.

Goals: A. Hrustanovic (10'), D. Haracic (52', 90'), H. Alibegovic (68').

The match was played at Stadion Pirota in Travnik.