Travnik 2–1 TOŠK Tešanj: Result & Stats

Travnik

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

TOŠK Tešanj

11/17/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 14Stadion Pirota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Travnik47%

×Draw26%

TOŠK Tešanj27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TravnikExpected goals in this matchTOŠK Tešanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.04

Travnik

1.48

TOŠK Tešanj

1.04

Travnik creates 42% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 97 away

1.44

creates per match

1.21

0.87

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Travnik

1.44

TOŠK Tešanj

1.21

allows per match

Travnik

0.87

TOŠK Tešanj

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Travnik+0.00on par

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Travnik ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Travnik or draw

73%

Travnik or TOŠK Tešanj

74%

Draw or TOŠK Tešanj

53%

Winning margin

Travnik wins by 2+

24%

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Travnik 1+ goals

77%

Travnik 2+ goals

43%

Travnik 3+ goals

19%

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals

65%

TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals

28%

TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Travnik (draw refunded)

64%

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Travnik at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.87 · 82 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Travnik attack 1.44 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Travnik defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Travnik scores more

47%

level

26%

TOŠK Tešanj scores more

27%

Travnik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Travnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff