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Travnik vs Rudar Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Travnik
Travnik
FT
1 – 1
Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
11/7/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 14Stadion Pirota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Travnik51%
×Draw26%
Rudar Kakanj23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Travnik
1.52
Rudar Kakanj
0.93

Travnik creates 63% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 69 away

creates per match

Travnik
1.46
Rudar Kakanj
0.97

allows per match

Travnik
0.88
Rudar Kakanj
1.58

finishing

Travnik+0.00on par
Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Travnik ↓

Rudar Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Travnik or draw
77%
Travnik or Rudar Kakanj
74%
Draw or Rudar Kakanj
49%

Winning margin

Travnik wins by 2+
26%
Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Travnik 1+ goals
78%
Travnik 2+ goals
45%
Travnik 3+ goals
20%
Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
61%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
24%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Travnik (draw refunded)
69%
Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Travnik at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 81 matches

Rudar Kakanj away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Travnik attack 1.46 + Rudar Kakanj defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rudar Kakanj attack 0.97 + Travnik defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Travnik scores more
51%
level
26%
Rudar Kakanj scores more
23%

Travnik at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Travnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Travnik vs Rudar Kakanj

Travnik and Rudar Kakanj drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Pirota in Travnik.