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Rudar Kakanj vs Travnik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
FT
3 – 2
Travnik
Travnik
5/29/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 29Stadion Pod Vardom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Rudar Kakanj57%
×Draw24%
Travnik20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Kakanj
1.73
Travnik
0.91

Rudar Kakanj creates 90% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 80 away

creates per match

Rudar Kakanj
1.75
Travnik
0.91

allows per match

Rudar Kakanj
0.90
Travnik
1.71

finishing

Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par
Travnik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Kakanj ↓

Travnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rudar Kakanj or draw
80%
Rudar Kakanj or Travnik
76%
Draw or Travnik
43%

Winning margin

Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
32%
Travnik wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
82%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
52%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
25%
Travnik 1+ goals
60%
Travnik 2+ goals
23%
Travnik 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
74%
Travnik (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Kakanj at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.90 · 68 matches

Travnik away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.71 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Kakanj attack 1.75 + Travnik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Travnik attack 0.91 + Rudar Kakanj defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rudar Kakanj scores more
57%
level
24%
Travnik scores more
20%

Rudar Kakanj at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rudar Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar Kakanj vs Travnik

Rudar Kakanj beat Travnik 3-2 in 1st League - FBiH on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Vardom in Kakanj.