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Travnik vs Radnički Lukavac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Travnik
Travnik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Radnički Lukavac
Radnički Lukavac
10/16/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 8Stadion Pirota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Travnik60%
×Draw21%
Radnički Lukavac19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Travnik
2.01
Radnički Lukavac
1.04

Travnik creates 93% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 30 away

creates per match

Travnik
1.46
Radnički Lukavac
1.20

allows per match

Travnik
0.88
Radnički Lukavac
2.57

finishing

Travnik+0.00on par
Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Travnik ↓

Radnički Lukavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Travnik or draw
81%
Travnik or Radnički Lukavac
79%
Draw or Radnički Lukavac
40%

Winning margin

Travnik wins by 2+
36%
Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Travnik 1+ goals
87%
Travnik 2+ goals
59%
Travnik 3+ goals
32%
Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals
65%
Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals
28%
Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Travnik (draw refunded)
76%
Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Travnik at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 81 matches

Radnički Lukavac away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Travnik attack 1.46 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.01

Radnički Lukavac attack 1.20 + Travnik defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Travnik scores more
60%
level
21%
Radnički Lukavac scores more
19%

Travnik at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Travnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Travnik 1–0 Radnički Lukavac

Travnik beat Radnički Lukavac 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pirota in Travnik.