Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Travnik vs Gornji Rahić — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Travnik
Travnik
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
5/3/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 24Stadion Pirota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Travnik59%
×Draw22%
Gornji Rahić20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Travnik
1.97
Gornji Rahić
1.04

Travnik creates 89% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 29 away

creates per match

Travnik
1.46
Gornji Rahić
1.21

allows per match

Travnik
0.88
Gornji Rahić
2.48

finishing

Travnik+0.00on par
Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Travnik ↓

Gornji Rahić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Travnik or draw
80%
Travnik or Gornji Rahić
78%
Draw or Gornji Rahić
41%

Winning margin

Travnik wins by 2+
35%
Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Travnik 1+ goals
86%
Travnik 2+ goals
58%
Travnik 3+ goals
31%
Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
65%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
28%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Travnik (draw refunded)
75%
Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Travnik at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 81 matches

Gornji Rahić away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Travnik attack 1.46 + Gornji Rahić defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.97

Gornji Rahić attack 1.21 + Travnik defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Travnik scores more
59%
level
22%
Gornji Rahić scores more
20%

Travnik at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Travnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Travnik 4–3 Gornji Rahić

Travnik beat Gornji Rahić 4-3 in 1st League - FBiH on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Pirota in Travnik.