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Travnik vs Čelik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Travnik
Travnik
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Čelik
Čelik
F. Delilbasic 69'
A. Masic 8'
8/24/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 1Stadion Pirota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Travnik44%
×Draw28%
Čelik28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Travnik
1.34
Čelik
1.00

Travnik creates 34% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 42 away

creates per match

Travnik
1.44
Čelik
1.14

allows per match

Travnik
0.87
Čelik
1.24

finishing

Travnik+0.00on par
Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Travnik ↓

Čelik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Travnik or draw
72%
Travnik or Čelik
72%
Draw or Čelik
56%

Winning margin

Travnik wins by 2+
21%
Čelik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Travnik 1+ goals
74%
Travnik 2+ goals
39%
Travnik 3+ goals
15%
Čelik 1+ goals
63%
Čelik 2+ goals
26%
Čelik 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Travnik (draw refunded)
61%
Čelik (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Travnik at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.87 · 82 matches

Čelik away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Travnik attack 1.44 + Čelik defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Čelik attack 1.14 + Travnik defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Travnik scores more
44%
level
28%
Čelik scores more
28%

Travnik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Travnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Masic
69'
F. Delilbasic
Travnik
Čelik
O. Bajrić
Manager: O. Bajrić
N. Hukić
Manager: N. Hukić

Match Recap: Travnik vs Čelik

Travnik and Čelik drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on August 24, 2025.

Goals: A. Masic (8'), F. Delilbasic (69').

The match was played at Stadion Pirota in Travnik.