TRAU 0–2 Rajasthan United: Result & Stats

TRAU

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rajasthan United

3/15/2024

I-League · Round 22Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

TRAU46%

×Draw24%

Rajasthan United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TRAUExpected goals in this matchRajasthan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.28

TRAU

1.65

Rajasthan United

1.28

TRAU creates 29% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 49 away

1.26

creates per match

1.24

1.32

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

TRAU

1.26

Rajasthan United

1.24

allows per match

TRAU

1.32

Rajasthan United

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TRAU+0.00on par

Rajasthan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TRAU ↓

Rajasthan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

TRAU or draw

70%

TRAU or Rajasthan United

76%

Draw or Rajasthan United

54%

Winning margin

TRAU wins by 2+

24%

Rajasthan United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

TRAU 1+ goals

81%

TRAU 2+ goals

49%

TRAU 3+ goals

23%

Rajasthan United 1+ goals

72%

Rajasthan United 2+ goals

37%

Rajasthan United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

TRAU (draw refunded)

61%

Rajasthan United (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TRAU at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 50 matches

Rajasthan United away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TRAU attack 1.26 + Rajasthan United defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.65

Rajasthan United attack 1.24 + TRAU defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

TRAU scores more

46%

level

24%

Rajasthan United scores more

30%

TRAU at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TRAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff