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TRAU vs NEROCA — I-League 2019

TRAU
TRAU
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
NEROCA
NEROCA
3/7/2022I-LeagueI-League · Round 3Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

TRAU47%
×Draw24%
NEROCA29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TRAU
1.69
NEROCA
1.26

TRAU creates 34% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 45 away

creates per match

TRAU
1.26
NEROCA
1.20

allows per match

TRAU
1.32
NEROCA
2.11

finishing

TRAU+0.00on par
NEROCA+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TRAU ↓

NEROCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

TRAU or draw
71%
TRAU or NEROCA
76%
Draw or NEROCA
53%

Winning margin

TRAU wins by 2+
25%
NEROCA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

TRAU 1+ goals
82%
TRAU 2+ goals
50%
TRAU 3+ goals
24%
NEROCA 1+ goals
72%
NEROCA 2+ goals
36%
NEROCA 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

TRAU (draw refunded)
62%
NEROCA (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TRAU at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 50 matches

NEROCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TRAU attack 1.26 + NEROCA defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.69

NEROCA attack 1.20 + TRAU defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

TRAU scores more
47%
level
24%
NEROCA scores more
29%

TRAU at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "TRAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: TRAU 0–2 NEROCA

NEROCA beat TRAU 2-0 in I-League on March 7, 2022.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.