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TRAU vs East Bengal — I-League 2019

TRAU
TRAU
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
East Bengal
East Bengal
2/23/2020I-LeagueI-League · Round 15Khuman Lampak Main Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

TRAU27%
×Draw25%
East Bengal48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TRAU
1.13
East Bengal
1.60

East Bengal creates 42% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 9 away

creates per match

TRAU
1.26
East Bengal
1.89

allows per match

TRAU
1.32
East Bengal
1.00

finishing

TRAU+0.00on par
East Bengal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TRAU ↓

East Bengal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

TRAU or draw
52%
TRAU or East Bengal
75%
Draw or East Bengal
73%

Winning margin

TRAU wins by 2+
11%
East Bengal wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

TRAU 1+ goals
68%
TRAU 2+ goals
31%
TRAU 3+ goals
11%
East Bengal 1+ goals
80%
East Bengal 2+ goals
47%
East Bengal 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

TRAU (draw refunded)
36%
East Bengal (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TRAU at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 50 matches

East Bengal away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TRAU attack 1.26 + East Bengal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

East Bengal attack 1.89 + TRAU defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

TRAU scores more
27%
level
25%
East Bengal scores more
48%

East Bengal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "East Bengal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: TRAU 2–4 East Bengal

East Bengal beat TRAU 4-2 in I-League on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Khuman Lampak Main Stadium in Imphal.