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TRAU vs Delhi FC — I-League 2019

TRAU
TRAU
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Delhi FC
Delhi FC
2/11/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 14Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

TRAU41%
×Draw24%
Delhi FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TRAU
1.61
Delhi FC
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 23 away

creates per match

TRAU
1.26
Delhi FC
1.65

allows per match

TRAU
1.32
Delhi FC
1.96

finishing

TRAU+0.00on par
Delhi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TRAU ↓

Delhi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

TRAU or draw
65%
TRAU or Delhi FC
76%
Draw or Delhi FC
59%

Winning margin

TRAU wins by 2+
21%
Delhi FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

TRAU 1+ goals
80%
TRAU 2+ goals
48%
TRAU 3+ goals
22%
Delhi FC 1+ goals
77%
Delhi FC 2+ goals
43%
Delhi FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

TRAU (draw refunded)
54%
Delhi FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TRAU at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 50 matches

Delhi FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TRAU attack 1.26 + Delhi FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.61

Delhi FC attack 1.65 + TRAU defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TRAU scores more
41%
level
24%
Delhi FC scores more
35%

TRAU at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "TRAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: TRAU 5–3 Delhi FC

TRAU beat Delhi FC 5-3 in I-League on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.