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TRAU vs Aizawl — I-League 2019

TRAU
TRAU
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Aizawl
Aizawl
5/1/2022I-LeagueI-League · Relegation Round - 4Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

TRAU41%
×Draw25%
Aizawl34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TRAU
1.53
Aizawl
1.38

TRAU creates 11% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 65 away

creates per match

TRAU
1.26
Aizawl
1.43

allows per match

TRAU
1.32
Aizawl
1.80

finishing

TRAU+0.00on par
Aizawl+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TRAU ↓

Aizawl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

TRAU or draw
66%
TRAU or Aizawl
75%
Draw or Aizawl
59%

Winning margin

TRAU wins by 2+
20%
Aizawl wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

TRAU 1+ goals
78%
TRAU 2+ goals
45%
TRAU 3+ goals
20%
Aizawl 1+ goals
75%
Aizawl 2+ goals
40%
Aizawl 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

TRAU (draw refunded)
54%
Aizawl (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TRAU at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 50 matches

Aizawl away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.80 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TRAU attack 1.26 + Aizawl defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.53

Aizawl attack 1.43 + TRAU defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TRAU scores more
41%
level
25%
Aizawl scores more
34%

TRAU at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "TRAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: TRAU 2–0 Aizawl

TRAU beat Aizawl 2-0 in I-League on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.