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Trat FC vs Uthai Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Trat FC
Trat FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
4/2/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 31Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Trat FC48%
×Draw25%
Uthai Thani27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trat FC
1.63
Uthai Thani
1.16

Trat FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 36 away

creates per match

Trat FC
1.87
Uthai Thani
1.39

allows per match

Trat FC
0.93
Uthai Thani
1.39

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par
Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Uthai Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw
73%
Trat FC or Uthai Thani
75%
Draw or Uthai Thani
52%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+
25%
Uthai Thani wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals
80%
Trat FC 2+ goals
48%
Trat FC 3+ goals
22%
Uthai Thani 1+ goals
69%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
32%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)
64%
Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Uthai Thani away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Uthai Thani defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.63

Uthai Thani attack 1.39 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trat FC scores more
48%
level
25%
Uthai Thani scores more
27%

Trat FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Trat FC 2–1 Uthai Thani

Trat FC beat Uthai Thani 2-1 in Thai League 2 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Trat.