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Trat FC vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Trat FC
Trat FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
10/10/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 7Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Trat FC58%
×Draw22%
Udon Thani20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trat FC
1.91
Udon Thani
1.04

Trat FC creates 84% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 82 away

creates per match

Trat FC
1.87
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Trat FC
0.93
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw
80%
Trat FC or Udon Thani
78%
Draw or Udon Thani
42%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+
34%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals
85%
Trat FC 2+ goals
57%
Trat FC 3+ goals
30%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
65%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
28%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)
74%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.91

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Trat FC scores more
58%
level
22%
Udon Thani scores more
20%

Trat FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trat FC vs Udon Thani

Trat FC beat Udon Thani 2-1 in Thai League 2 on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Trat.