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Trat FC vs Suphanburi — Thai League 2 2018

Trat FC
Trat FC
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Suphanburi
Suphanburi
2/2/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 22Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Trat FC59%
×Draw23%
Suphanburi18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trat FC
1.79
Suphanburi
0.89

Trat FC creates 101% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 52 away

creates per match

Trat FC
1.87
Suphanburi
0.85

allows per match

Trat FC
0.93
Suphanburi
1.71

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par
Suphanburi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Suphanburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw
82%
Trat FC or Suphanburi
77%
Draw or Suphanburi
41%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+
33%
Suphanburi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals
83%
Trat FC 2+ goals
53%
Trat FC 3+ goals
26%
Suphanburi 1+ goals
59%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
22%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)
76%
Suphanburi (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Suphanburi away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Suphanburi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.79

Suphanburi attack 0.85 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Trat FC scores more
59%
level
23%
Suphanburi scores more
18%

Trat FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trat FC vs Suphanburi

Trat FC beat Suphanburi 6-1 in Thai League 2 on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Trat.