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Trat FC vs Rayong FC — Thai League 2 2018

Trat FC
Trat FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
2/19/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 24Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Trat FC48%
×Draw24%
Rayong FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trat FC
1.66
Rayong FC
1.19

Trat FC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

Trat FC
1.87
Rayong FC
1.45

allows per match

Trat FC
0.93
Rayong FC
1.45

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw
73%
Trat FC or Rayong FC
76%
Draw or Rayong FC
52%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+
25%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals
81%
Trat FC 2+ goals
49%
Trat FC 3+ goals
23%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
70%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
33%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)
64%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Rayong FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.66

Rayong FC attack 1.45 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trat FC scores more
48%
level
24%
Rayong FC scores more
27%

Trat FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Trat FC 1–1 Rayong FC

Trat FC and Rayong FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Trat.