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Trat FC vs PTT Rayong — Thai League 2 2018

Trat FC
Trat FC
FT
5 – 0
PTT Rayong
PTT Rayong
3/18/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 6Trat Provincial Central Stadium (Trat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Trat FC44%
×Draw27%
PTT Rayong30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trat FC
1.40
PTT Rayong
1.11

Trat FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

creates per match

Trat FC
1.87
PTT Rayong
1.29

allows per match

Trat FC
0.93
PTT Rayong
0.93

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par
PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

PTT Rayong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw
70%
Trat FC or PTT Rayong
73%
Draw or PTT Rayong
56%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+
21%
PTT Rayong wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals
75%
Trat FC 2+ goals
41%
Trat FC 3+ goals
17%
PTT Rayong 1+ goals
67%
PTT Rayong 2+ goals
30%
PTT Rayong 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)
59%
PTT Rayong (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

PTT Rayong away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + PTT Rayong defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.40

PTT Rayong attack 1.29 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Trat FC scores more
44%
level
27%
PTT Rayong scores more
30%

Trat FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trat FC vs PTT Rayong

Trat FC beat PTT Rayong 5-0 in Thai League 2 on March 18, 2018.

The match was played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium (Trat).