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Trat FC vs Police Tero — Thai League 2 2018

Trat FC
Trat FC
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Police Tero
Police Tero
12/15/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 16Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Trat FC50%
×Draw24%
Police Tero26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trat FC
1.73
Police Tero
1.17

Trat FC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 52 away

creates per match

Trat FC
1.84
Police Tero
1.38

allows per match

Trat FC
0.96
Police Tero
1.63

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par
Police Tero+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Police Tero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw
74%
Trat FC or Police Tero
76%
Draw or Police Tero
50%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+
27%
Police Tero wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals
82%
Trat FC 2+ goals
52%
Trat FC 3+ goals
25%
Police Tero 1+ goals
69%
Police Tero 2+ goals
33%
Police Tero 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)
66%
Police Tero (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.96 · 74 matches

Police Tero away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.84 + Police Tero defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Police Tero attack 1.38 + Trat FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trat FC scores more
50%
level
24%
Police Tero scores more
26%

Trat FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trat FC vs Police Tero

Police Tero beat Trat FC 4-3 in Thai League 2 on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Trat.