Trat FC 6–0 Phitsanulok: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Trat FC

6 – 0

Phitsanulok

6/27/2018

FA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Trat FC55%

×Draw20%

Phitsanulok25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchPhitsanulok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.46

Trat FC

2.25

Phitsanulok

1.46

Trat FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

1.67

1.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Trat FC

2.50

Phitsanulok

1.67

allows per match

Trat FC

1.25

Phitsanulok

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Phitsanulok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Phitsanulok →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

75%

Trat FC or Phitsanulok

80%

Draw or Phitsanulok

45%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

34%

Phitsanulok wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

89%

Trat FC 2+ goals

65%

Trat FC 3+ goals

39%

Phitsanulok 1+ goals

77%

Phitsanulok 2+ goals

43%

Phitsanulok 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

69%

Phitsanulok (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Phitsanulok away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 2.50 + Phitsanulok defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Phitsanulok attack 1.67 + Trat FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Trat FC scores more

55%

level

20%

Phitsanulok scores more

25%

Trat FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff