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Trat FC vs Pattaya United — FA Cup 2018

Trat FC
Trat FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Pattaya United
Pattaya United
11/1/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundTrat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Trat FC59%
×Draw20%
Pattaya United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trat FC
2.31
Pattaya United
1.31

Trat FC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Trat FC
2.50
Pattaya United
1.38

allows per match

Trat FC
1.25
Pattaya United
2.13

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par
Pattaya United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Pattaya United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw
79%
Trat FC or Pattaya United
80%
Draw or Pattaya United
41%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+
38%
Pattaya United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals
90%
Trat FC 2+ goals
67%
Trat FC 3+ goals
40%
Pattaya United 1+ goals
73%
Pattaya United 2+ goals
38%
Pattaya United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)
74%
Pattaya United (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Pattaya United away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 2.50 + Pattaya United defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.31

Pattaya United attack 1.38 + Trat FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Trat FC scores more
59%
level
20%
Pattaya United scores more
21%

Trat FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trat FC vs Pattaya United

Pattaya United beat Trat FC 2-1 in FA Cup on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Trat.