Trat FC 0–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

0 – 0

Nong Bua Pitchaya

7/1/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 19Trat Provincial Central Stadium (Trat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Trat FC47%

×Draw25%

Nong Bua Pitchaya27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchNong Bua Pitchaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.14

Trat FC

1.58

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.14

Trat FC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

1.87

creates per match

1.34

0.93

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Trat FC

1.87

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.34

allows per match

Trat FC

0.93

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

73%

Trat FC or Nong Bua Pitchaya

75%

Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya

53%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

24%

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

79%

Trat FC 2+ goals

47%

Trat FC 3+ goals

21%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

68%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

32%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

63%

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trat FC scores more

47%

level

25%

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

27%

Trat FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff