Trat FC 2–0 Nakhon Si Thammarat: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nakhon Si Thammarat

4/19/2025

Thai League 2 · Round 33Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Trat FC57%

×Draw23%

Nakhon Si Thammarat20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchNakhon Si Thammarat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.95

Trat FC

1.79

Nakhon Si Thammarat

0.95

Trat FC creates 88% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 69 away

1.87

creates per match

0.97

0.93

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Trat FC

1.87

Nakhon Si Thammarat

0.97

allows per match

Trat FC

0.93

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

80%

Trat FC or Nakhon Si Thammarat

77%

Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat

43%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

32%

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

83%

Trat FC 2+ goals

53%

Trat FC 3+ goals

26%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

61%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

25%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

74%

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Trat FC scores more

57%

level

23%

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

20%

Trat FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff