Trat FC 2–0 Mahasarakham United: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mahasarakham United

3/22/2026

Thai League 2 · Round 31Trat Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Trat FC50%

×Draw26%

Mahasarakham United24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchMahasarakham United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.98

Trat FC

1.54

Mahasarakham United

0.98

Trat FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 34 away

1.87

creates per match

1.03

0.93

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Trat FC

1.87

Mahasarakham United

1.03

allows per match

Trat FC

0.93

Mahasarakham United

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Mahasarakham United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Mahasarakham United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

76%

Trat FC or Mahasarakham United

74%

Draw or Mahasarakham United

50%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

26%

Mahasarakham United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

79%

Trat FC 2+ goals

45%

Trat FC 3+ goals

20%

Mahasarakham United 1+ goals

62%

Mahasarakham United 2+ goals

26%

Mahasarakham United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

68%

Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Mahasarakham United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

Mahasarakham United attack 1.03 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trat FC scores more

50%

level

26%

Mahasarakham United scores more

24%

Trat FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff