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Trat FC vs Chiangmai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Trat FC
Trat FC
FT
1 – 0
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
3/3/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 4Trat Provincial Central Stadium (Trat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Trat FC50%
×Draw25%
Chiangmai FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trat FC
1.60
Chiangmai FC
1.06

Trat FC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 70 away

creates per match

Trat FC
1.79
Chiangmai FC
1.11

allows per match

Trat FC
1.00
Chiangmai FC
1.41

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw
75%
Trat FC or Chiangmai FC
75%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
50%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+
26%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals
80%
Trat FC 2+ goals
47%
Trat FC 3+ goals
22%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
65%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
29%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)
66%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.79 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.60

Chiangmai FC attack 1.11 + Trat FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trat FC scores more
50%
level
25%
Chiangmai FC scores more
25%

Trat FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Trat FC 1–0 Chiangmai FC

Trat FC beat Chiangmai FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on March 3, 2018.

The match was played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium (Trat).