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Chiangmai FC vs Trat FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trat FC
Trat FC
11/13/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 13Chiangmai Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Chiangmai FC49%
×Draw24%
Trat FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai FC
1.68
Trat FC
1.16

Chiangmai FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 84 away

creates per match

Chiangmai FC
1.78
Trat FC
1.20

allows per match

Chiangmai FC
1.12
Trat FC
1.57

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par
Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Trat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw
74%
Chiangmai FC or Trat FC
76%
Draw or Trat FC
51%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
26%
Trat FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
81%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
50%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
24%
Trat FC 1+ goals
69%
Trat FC 2+ goals
32%
Trat FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
65%
Trat FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.78 + Trat FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.68

Trat FC attack 1.20 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more
49%
level
24%
Trat FC scores more
26%

Chiangmai FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiangmai FC vs Trat FC

Chiangmai FC beat Trat FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Chiangmai Municipality Stadium in Chiang Mai.