Trat FC 3–4 Buriram United: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Buriram United

L. Cohen 85'

B. Azubel 34'

Thitathorn Auksornsri 20'

Bissoli 80'

G. Čaušić 68', 31' (pen)

Dion Cools 4'

2/18/2024

League #296 · Round 18Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trat FC28%

×Draw23%

Buriram United49%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.79

Trat FC

1.30

Buriram United

1.79

Buriram United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.38

creates per match

2.04

1.54

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Trat FC

1.38

Buriram United

2.04

allows per match

Trat FC

1.54

Buriram United

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Buriram United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

51%

Trat FC or Buriram United

77%

Draw or Buriram United

72%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

12%

Buriram United wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

73%

Trat FC 2+ goals

37%

Trat FC 3+ goals

14%

Buriram United 1+ goals

83%

Buriram United 2+ goals

53%

Buriram United 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

36%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Buriram United away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.38 + Buriram United defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Buriram United attack 2.04 + Trat FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Trat FC scores more

28%

level

23%

Buriram United scores more

49%

Buriram United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Bissoli

Buriram United · F

8.3

Match Events

4'

Dion Cools↳ T. Bunmathan

11'

Daizo Horikoshi

13'

Guilherme Bissoli

20'

Thitathorn Auksornsri↳ Jorge Fellipe

30'

Thatpicha Auksonsri

31'

G. ČaušićPenalty

34'

B. Azubel

46'

L. Doumbouya← S. Haiprakhon

55'

Jorge Fellipe

56'

J. Tabinas← T. Chotmuangpak

56'

N. Weerawatnodom← P. Hemviboon

68'

G. Čaušić

70'

Kenny Dougall

74'

S. Thongkot← P. Jarunai

80'

Bissoli↳ J. Tabinas

83'

R. Maikami← K. Dougall

85'

L. Cohen↳ S. Thongkot

87'

M. Budrak← B. Azubel

90+4'

C. Raksongkham← T. Sujarit

90'

S. Ratree← S. Chaided

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TratBuriram

Overview

34%Possession66%

15Total Shots21

2Corners8

13Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots21

6On Target11

4Off Target8

5Blocked2

11Inside Box16

4Outside Box5

Passing

34%Possession66%

246Total Passes481

183Accurate Passes418

74%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides5