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Trat FC vs Buriram United — FA Cup 2018

Trat FC
Trat FC
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Buriram United
Buriram United
8/7/2019FA CupFA Cup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Trat FC38%
×Draw21%
Buriram United41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trat FC
1.93
Buriram United
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Trat FC
2.50
Buriram United
2.79

allows per match

Trat FC
1.25
Buriram United
1.36

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par
Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Buriram United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw
59%
Trat FC or Buriram United
79%
Draw or Buriram United
62%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+
20%
Buriram United wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals
85%
Trat FC 2+ goals
57%
Trat FC 3+ goals
30%
Buriram United 1+ goals
87%
Buriram United 2+ goals
60%
Buriram United 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)
48%
Buriram United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Buriram United away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 2.50 + Buriram United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.93

Buriram United attack 2.79 + Trat FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trat FC scores more
38%
level
21%
Buriram United scores more
41%

Buriram United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trat FC vs Buriram United

Trat FC and Buriram United drew 0-0 in FA Cup on August 7, 2019.