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Trat FC vs Ayutthaya FC — Thai League 2 2018

Trat FC
Trat FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
2/12/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 24Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Trat FC50%
×Draw25%
Ayutthaya FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trat FC
1.63
Ayutthaya FC
1.09

Trat FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 101 away

creates per match

Trat FC
1.87
Ayutthaya FC
1.25

allows per match

Trat FC
0.93
Ayutthaya FC
1.38

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw
75%
Trat FC or Ayutthaya FC
75%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
50%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+
26%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals
80%
Trat FC 2+ goals
48%
Trat FC 3+ goals
22%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
66%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
30%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)
66%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trat FC scores more
50%
level
25%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
25%

Trat FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Trat FC 1–0 Ayutthaya FC

Trat FC beat Ayutthaya FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on February 12, 2025.

The match was played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Trat.