Trat FC 4–0 Ayutthaya FC: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ayutthaya FC

Conrado 80', 77'

M. Babo 59'

P. Jarunai 52'

9/26/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 5Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Trat FC48%

×Draw25%

Ayutthaya FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchAyutthaya FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.13

Trat FC

1.58

Ayutthaya FC

1.13

Trat FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 100 away

1.78

creates per match

1.25

1.01

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Trat FC

1.78

Ayutthaya FC

1.25

allows per match

Trat FC

1.01

Ayutthaya FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Ayutthaya FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

73%

Trat FC or Ayutthaya FC

75%

Draw or Ayutthaya FC

52%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

25%

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

79%

Trat FC 2+ goals

47%

Trat FC 3+ goals

21%

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

68%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

31%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

64%

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.01 · 74 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.78 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Trat FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trat FC scores more

48%

level

25%

Ayutthaya FC scores more

27%

Trat FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

P. Pongthong← S. Mingsamorn

52'

P. Jarunai

59'

M. Babo

66'

C. Srisawat← N. Klinchampasri

66'

S. Kraikruan← S. Plangwal

66'

S. Sanklong← N. Udsa

68'

P. Limraksa← I. Marom

72'

J. Noysri← S. Yoosuebchuea

74'

Zaw Min Tun← P. Failai

77'

Conrado

79'

P. Singnon← Felipe Wallace

80'

Conrado

84'

K. Premthanakoon← M. Babo

84'

N. Saengsri← A. Mheetuam

Trat

Ayutthaya

1

Rakyart

5

▼

2

4

14

19

▼

Klinchamp

79

Piwsai

7

Chai-Yan

13

▼

Udsa

70

▼

Wallace

11

▼

Yoosuebch

18

Srirueng

4

Katano

5

▼

Failai

99

▼

Marom

25

▼

Mingsamor

7

⚽

Jarunai

2

▼

Mheetuam

17

⚽

▼

Babo

33

Valdo

11

⚽2

Conrado

15

Thanachar

Manager: S. Chuayboonchum

46'▲P. Pongthong←▼S. Mingsamorn

68'▲P. Limraksa←▼I. Marom

74'▲Zaw Min Tun←▼P. Failai

84'▲K. Premthanakoon←▼M. Babo

84'▲N. Saengsri←▼A. Mheetuam

Trat FC substitutes

14Pongthong9Limraksa3Tun28Premthanakoon23Saengsri38Pipatnadda16Jamroensri39Janchaichit21Manchart

Manager: J. Jitsawad

66'▲C. Srisawat←▼N. Klinchampasri

66'▲S. Kraikruan←▼S. Plangwal

66'▲S. Sanklong←▼N. Udsa

72'▲J. Noysri←▼S. Yoosuebchuea

79'▲P. Singnon←▼Felipe Wallace

Ayutthaya FC substitutes

23Srisawat24Kraikruan6Sanklong9Noysri44Singnon8Wisetbamrungcharoen30Boonyachot20Kojima21Srichai