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Trastevere vs Romana — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Trastevere
Trastevere
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Romana
Romana
11/5/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 10Centro Sportivo Vittorio Bachelet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trastevere41%
×Draw26%
Romana33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trastevere
1.39
Romana
1.21

Trastevere creates 15% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

creates per match

Trastevere
1.83
Romana
1.24

allows per match

Trastevere
1.18
Romana
0.94

finishing

Trastevere+0.00on par
Romana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trastevere ↓

Romana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Trastevere or draw
67%
Trastevere or Romana
74%
Draw or Romana
59%

Winning margin

Trastevere wins by 2+
19%
Romana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Trastevere 1+ goals
75%
Trastevere 2+ goals
40%
Trastevere 3+ goals
16%
Romana 1+ goals
70%
Romana 2+ goals
34%
Romana 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trastevere (draw refunded)
56%
Romana (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trastevere at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 66 matches

Romana away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trastevere attack 1.83 + Romana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.39

Romana attack 1.24 + Trastevere defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trastevere scores more
41%
level
26%
Romana scores more
33%

Trastevere at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Trastevere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trastevere vs Romana

Romana beat Trastevere 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Vittorio Bachelet in Roma.