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Trastevere vs Ischia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Trastevere
Trastevere
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ischia
Ischia
S. Mattia 74'
S. Longo 49' (pen)
3/22/2026Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 28Centro Sportivo Vittorio Bachelet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Trastevere47%
×Draw25%
Ischia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trastevere
1.54
Ischia
1.12

Trastevere creates 38% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 34 away

creates per match

Trastevere
1.83
Ischia
1.06

allows per match

Trastevere
1.18
Ischia
1.24

finishing

Trastevere+0.00on par
Ischia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trastevere ↓

Ischia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Trastevere or draw
72%
Trastevere or Ischia
75%
Draw or Ischia
53%

Winning margin

Trastevere wins by 2+
24%
Ischia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Trastevere 1+ goals
79%
Trastevere 2+ goals
45%
Trastevere 3+ goals
20%
Ischia 1+ goals
67%
Ischia 2+ goals
31%
Ischia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Trastevere (draw refunded)
63%
Ischia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trastevere at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 66 matches

Ischia away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trastevere attack 1.83 + Ischia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ischia attack 1.06 + Trastevere defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trastevere scores more
47%
level
25%
Ischia scores more
28%

Trastevere at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Trastevere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
S. LongoPenalty
74'
S. Mattia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Trastevere 1–1 Ischia

Trastevere and Ischia drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on March 22, 2026.

Goals: S. Longo (49' pen), S. Mattia (74').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Vittorio Bachelet in Roma.