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Trastevere vs Cavese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Trastevere
Trastevere
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cavese
Cavese
2/25/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 24Centro Sportivo Vittorio Bachelet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trastevere33%
×Draw26%
Cavese41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trastevere
1.24
Cavese
1.42

Cavese creates 15% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

creates per match

Trastevere
1.83
Cavese
1.65

allows per match

Trastevere
1.18
Cavese
0.65

finishing

Trastevere+0.00on par
Cavese+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trastevere ↓

Cavese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Trastevere or draw
59%
Trastevere or Cavese
74%
Draw or Cavese
67%

Winning margin

Trastevere wins by 2+
14%
Cavese wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Trastevere 1+ goals
71%
Trastevere 2+ goals
35%
Trastevere 3+ goals
13%
Cavese 1+ goals
76%
Cavese 2+ goals
41%
Cavese 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Trastevere (draw refunded)
44%
Cavese (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trastevere at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 66 matches

Cavese away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trastevere attack 1.83 + Cavese defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.24

Cavese attack 1.65 + Trastevere defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trastevere scores more
33%
level
26%
Cavese scores more
41%

Cavese at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cavese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trastevere vs Cavese

Cavese beat Trastevere 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Vittorio Bachelet in Roma.