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Trasandino vs Provincial Osorno — Segunda División 2020

Trasandino
Trasandino
FT
4 – 2
HT: 4 – 0
Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno
7/20/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 15Estadio Regional de Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Trasandino42%
×Draw25%
Provincial Osorno33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trasandino
1.48
Provincial Osorno
1.29

Trasandino creates 15% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 43 away

creates per match

Trasandino
1.38
Provincial Osorno
1.26

allows per match

Trasandino
1.31
Provincial Osorno
1.58

finishing

Trasandino+0.00on par
Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trasandino ↓

Provincial Osorno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Trasandino or draw
67%
Trasandino or Provincial Osorno
75%
Draw or Provincial Osorno
58%

Winning margin

Trasandino wins by 2+
20%
Provincial Osorno wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Trasandino 1+ goals
77%
Trasandino 2+ goals
43%
Trasandino 3+ goals
19%
Provincial Osorno 1+ goals
72%
Provincial Osorno 2+ goals
37%
Provincial Osorno 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Trasandino (draw refunded)
56%
Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trasandino at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 55 matches

Provincial Osorno away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trasandino attack 1.38 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Provincial Osorno attack 1.26 + Trasandino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Trasandino scores more
42%
level
25%
Provincial Osorno scores more
33%

Trasandino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Trasandino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trasandino vs Provincial Osorno

Trasandino beat Provincial Osorno 4-2 in Segunda División on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Regional de Los Andes in Los Andes.