Trasandino 1–1 Lautaro de Buin: Result & Stats

Trasandino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lautaro de Buin

5/27/2023

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Regional de Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Trasandino43%

×Draw26%

Lautaro de Buin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrasandinoExpected goals in this matchLautaro de Buin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.20

Trasandino

1.45

Lautaro de Buin

1.20

Trasandino creates 21% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 58 away

1.38

creates per match

1.09

1.31

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Trasandino

1.38

Lautaro de Buin

1.09

allows per match

Trasandino

1.31

Lautaro de Buin

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trasandino+0.00on par

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trasandino ↓

Lautaro de Buin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Trasandino or draw

69%

Trasandino or Lautaro de Buin

74%

Draw or Lautaro de Buin

57%

Winning margin

Trasandino wins by 2+

21%

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Trasandino 1+ goals

77%

Trasandino 2+ goals

42%

Trasandino 3+ goals

18%

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals

70%

Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals

34%

Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Trasandino (draw refunded)

58%

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trasandino at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 55 matches

Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trasandino attack 1.38 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + Trasandino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Trasandino scores more

43%

level

26%

Lautaro de Buin scores more

31%

Trasandino at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Trasandino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Trasandino 1–1 Lautaro de Buin

Trasandino and Lautaro de Buin drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Regional de Los Andes in Los Andes.

Trasandino vs Lautaro de Buin — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Segunda División: Trasandino 1–1 Lautaro de Buin