Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Trasandino vs Iberia — Segunda División 2020

Trasandino
Trasandino
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Iberia
Iberia
5/27/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Regional de Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Trasandino34%
×Draw27%
Iberia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trasandino
1.20
Iberia
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 46 away

creates per match

Trasandino
1.38
Iberia
1.30

allows per match

Trasandino
1.31
Iberia
1.02

finishing

Trasandino+0.00on par
Iberia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trasandino ↓

Iberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Trasandino or draw
61%
Trasandino or Iberia
73%
Draw or Iberia
66%

Winning margin

Trasandino wins by 2+
14%
Iberia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Trasandino 1+ goals
70%
Trasandino 2+ goals
34%
Trasandino 3+ goals
12%
Iberia 1+ goals
73%
Iberia 2+ goals
38%
Iberia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Trasandino (draw refunded)
46%
Iberia (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trasandino at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 55 matches

Iberia away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trasandino attack 1.38 + Iberia defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Iberia attack 1.30 + Trasandino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trasandino scores more
34%
level
27%
Iberia scores more
39%

Iberia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Iberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trasandino vs Iberia

Trasandino beat Iberia 1-0 in Segunda División on May 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Regional de Los Andes in Los Andes.