Trasandino 1–0 Fernández Vial: Result & Stats

Trasandino

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fernández Vial

8/12/2024

Segunda División · Round 18Estadio Regional de Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Trasandino35%

×Draw27%

Fernández Vial38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrasandinoExpected goals in this matchFernández Vial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.26

Trasandino

1.19

Fernández Vial

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 38 away

1.38

creates per match

1.21

1.31

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Trasandino

1.38

Fernández Vial

1.21

allows per match

Trasandino

1.31

Fernández Vial

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trasandino+0.00on par

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trasandino ↓

Fernández Vial →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Trasandino or draw

62%

Trasandino or Fernández Vial

73%

Draw or Fernández Vial

65%

Winning margin

Trasandino wins by 2+

14%

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Trasandino 1+ goals

70%

Trasandino 2+ goals

33%

Trasandino 3+ goals

12%

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

72%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

36%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Trasandino (draw refunded)

48%

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trasandino at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 55 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trasandino attack 1.38 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Fernández Vial attack 1.21 + Trasandino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Trasandino scores more

35%

level

27%

Fernández Vial scores more

38%

Fernández Vial at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff