Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Trasandino vs Deportes Valdivia — Segunda División 2020

Trasandino
Trasandino
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
7/23/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14Estadio Regional de Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Trasandino41%
×Draw26%
Deportes Valdivia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trasandino
1.39
Deportes Valdivia
1.21

Trasandino creates 15% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 35 away

creates per match

Trasandino
1.38
Deportes Valdivia
1.11

allows per match

Trasandino
1.31
Deportes Valdivia
1.40

finishing

Trasandino+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trasandino ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Trasandino or draw
67%
Trasandino or Deportes Valdivia
74%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
59%

Winning margin

Trasandino wins by 2+
19%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Trasandino 1+ goals
75%
Trasandino 2+ goals
40%
Trasandino 3+ goals
16%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
70%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
34%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trasandino (draw refunded)
56%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trasandino at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 55 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trasandino attack 1.38 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.11 + Trasandino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trasandino scores more
41%
level
26%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
33%

Trasandino at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Trasandino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Trasandino 2–1 Deportes Valdivia

Trasandino beat Deportes Valdivia 2-1 in Segunda División on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Regional de Los Andes in Los Andes.