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Trasandino vs Deportes Rengo — Segunda División 2020

Trasandino
Trasandino
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Deportes Rengo
Deportes Rengo
3/14/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio Regional de Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Trasandino45%
×Draw26%
Deportes Rengo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trasandino
1.50
Deportes Rengo
1.16

Trasandino creates 29% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 44 away

creates per match

Trasandino
1.38
Deportes Rengo
1.00

allows per match

Trasandino
1.31
Deportes Rengo
1.61

finishing

Trasandino+0.00on par
Deportes Rengo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trasandino ↓

Deportes Rengo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Trasandino or draw
71%
Trasandino or Deportes Rengo
74%
Draw or Deportes Rengo
55%

Winning margin

Trasandino wins by 2+
22%
Deportes Rengo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Trasandino 1+ goals
78%
Trasandino 2+ goals
44%
Trasandino 3+ goals
19%
Deportes Rengo 1+ goals
69%
Deportes Rengo 2+ goals
32%
Deportes Rengo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Trasandino (draw refunded)
61%
Deportes Rengo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trasandino at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 55 matches

Deportes Rengo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trasandino attack 1.38 + Deportes Rengo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Deportes Rengo attack 1.00 + Trasandino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Trasandino scores more
45%
level
26%
Deportes Rengo scores more
29%

Trasandino at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Trasandino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Trasandino 1–3 Deportes Rengo

Deportes Rengo beat Trasandino 3-1 in Segunda División on March 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Regional de Los Andes in Los Andes.