Trasandino 0–2 Concón National: Result & Stats

Trasandino

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Concón National

J. Retamales 46'

C. Astroza 22'

9/8/2024

Segunda División · Round 22Estadio Regional de Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Trasandino37%

×Draw25%

Concón National39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrasandinoExpected goals in this matchConcón National

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.48

Trasandino

1.43

Concón National

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 31 away

1.38

creates per match

1.65

1.31

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Trasandino

1.38

Concón National

1.65

allows per match

Trasandino

1.31

Concón National

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trasandino+0.00on par

Concón National+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trasandino ↓

Concón National →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Trasandino or draw

61%

Trasandino or Concón National

75%

Draw or Concón National

63%

Winning margin

Trasandino wins by 2+

17%

Concón National wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Trasandino 1+ goals

76%

Trasandino 2+ goals

42%

Trasandino 3+ goals

17%

Concón National 1+ goals

77%

Concón National 2+ goals

43%

Concón National 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Trasandino (draw refunded)

49%

Concón National (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trasandino at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 55 matches

Concón National away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trasandino attack 1.38 + Concón National defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Concón National attack 1.65 + Trasandino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trasandino scores more

37%

level

25%

Concón National scores more

39%

Concón National at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

C. Astroza

46'

P. Brito← S. Muñoz

46'

P. Troncoso← B. Rodríguez

46'

J. Retamales

62'

D. Vera← E. Arismendi

62'

G. Davis← R. Fuenzalida

75'

R. Matamala← J. Arancibia

75'

C. Leiton← C. Astroza

75'

J. Llanos← C. Díaz

89'

90+4'

P. Navia← R. Zúñiga

Trasandino

Concón

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Climent

46'▲P. Brito←▼S. Muñoz

46'▲P. Troncoso←▼B. Rodríguez

75'▲R. Matamala←▼J. Arancibia

Trasandino substitutes

BritoTroncosoMatamalaDelfinoSantisGonzálezTorres

Manager: J. Orellana

62'▲D. Vera←▼E. Arismendi

62'▲G. Davis←▼R. Fuenzalida

75'▲C. Leiton←▼C. Astroza

75'▲J. Llanos←▼C. Díaz

90+4'▲P. Navia←▼R. Zúñiga

Concón National substitutes

VeraDavisLeitonLlanosNaviaMartínezAlba

Segunda División: Trasandino 0–2 Concón National

Concón National beat Trasandino 2-0 in Segunda División on September 8, 2024.

Goals: C. Astroza (22'), J. Retamales (46').

The match was played at Estadio Regional de Los Andes in Los Andes.

Trasandino vs Concón National — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Trasandino 0–2 Concón National