Trarza AC 0–2 Nouakchott King's: Result & Stats

Trarza AC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Nouakchott King's

2/5/2023

Premier League · Round 11Stade Trarza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Trarza AC32%

×Draw29%

Nouakchott King's39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trarza ACExpected goals in this matchNouakchott King's

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.17

Trarza AC

1.02

Nouakchott King's

1.17

Nouakchott King's creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 77 away

0.78

creates per match

1.23

1.11

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Trarza AC

0.78

Nouakchott King's

1.23

allows per match

Trarza AC

1.11

Nouakchott King's

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trarza AC+0.00on par

Nouakchott King's+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trarza AC ↓

Nouakchott King's →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Trarza AC or draw

61%

Trarza AC or Nouakchott King's

71%

Draw or Nouakchott King's

68%

Winning margin

Trarza AC wins by 2+

12%

Nouakchott King's wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Trarza AC 1+ goals

64%

Trarza AC 2+ goals

27%

Trarza AC 3+ goals

8%

Nouakchott King's 1+ goals

69%

Nouakchott King's 2+ goals

33%

Nouakchott King's 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Trarza AC (draw refunded)

45%

Nouakchott King's (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trarza AC at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Nouakchott King's away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.25 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trarza AC attack 0.78 + Nouakchott King's defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Nouakchott King's attack 1.23 + Trarza AC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trarza AC scores more

32%

level

29%

Nouakchott King's scores more

39%

Nouakchott King's at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nouakchott King's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff