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Trarza AC vs Inter Nouakchott — Premier League 2020

Trarza AC
Trarza AC
FT
1 – 0
Inter Nouakchott
Inter Nouakchott
5/16/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Stade Trarza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Trarza AC40%
×Draw30%
Inter Nouakchott30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trarza AC
1.13
Inter Nouakchott
0.94

Trarza AC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 66 away

creates per match

Trarza AC
0.78
Inter Nouakchott
0.77

allows per match

Trarza AC
1.11
Inter Nouakchott
1.48

finishing

Trarza AC+0.00on par
Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trarza AC ↓

Inter Nouakchott →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Trarza AC or draw
70%
Trarza AC or Inter Nouakchott
70%
Draw or Inter Nouakchott
60%

Winning margin

Trarza AC wins by 2+
17%
Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Trarza AC 1+ goals
68%
Trarza AC 2+ goals
31%
Trarza AC 3+ goals
11%
Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals
61%
Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals
24%
Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Trarza AC (draw refunded)
57%
Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trarza AC at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Inter Nouakchott away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trarza AC attack 0.78 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.13

Inter Nouakchott attack 0.77 + Trarza AC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trarza AC scores more
40%
level
30%
Inter Nouakchott scores more
30%

Trarza AC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trarza AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Trarza AC 1–0 Inter Nouakchott

Trarza AC beat Inter Nouakchott 1-0 in Premier League on May 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Trarza in Rosso.