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Trarza AC vs Gourel Sangue — Premier League 2020

Trarza AC
Trarza AC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gourel Sangue
Gourel Sangue
12/22/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trarza AC62%
×Draw21%
Gourel Sangue17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trarza AC
2.00
Gourel Sangue
0.94

Trarza AC creates 113% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 13 away

creates per match

Trarza AC
0.78
Gourel Sangue
0.77

allows per match

Trarza AC
1.11
Gourel Sangue
3.23

finishing

Trarza AC+0.00on par
Gourel Sangue+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trarza AC ↓

Gourel Sangue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Trarza AC or draw
83%
Trarza AC or Gourel Sangue
79%
Draw or Gourel Sangue
38%

Winning margin

Trarza AC wins by 2+
38%
Gourel Sangue wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Trarza AC 1+ goals
86%
Trarza AC 2+ goals
59%
Trarza AC 3+ goals
32%
Gourel Sangue 1+ goals
61%
Gourel Sangue 2+ goals
24%
Gourel Sangue 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Trarza AC (draw refunded)
78%
Gourel Sangue (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trarza AC at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Gourel Sangue away — creates 0.77, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trarza AC attack 0.78 + Gourel Sangue defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.00

Gourel Sangue attack 0.77 + Trarza AC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Trarza AC scores more
62%
level
21%
Gourel Sangue scores more
17%

Trarza AC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Trarza AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Trarza AC 3–0 Gourel Sangue

Trarza AC beat Gourel Sangue 3-0 in Premier League on December 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Nouakchott in Nouakchott.