Trarza AC 2–1 Garde Nationale: Result & Stats

Trarza AC

FT

2 – 1

Garde Nationale

11/7/2021

Premier League · Round 6Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Trarza AC31%

×Draw32%

Garde Nationale37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trarza ACExpected goals in this matchGarde Nationale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.00

Trarza AC

0.89

Garde Nationale

1.00

Garde Nationale creates 12% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 64 away

0.78

creates per match

0.89

1.11

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Trarza AC

0.78

Garde Nationale

0.89

allows per match

Trarza AC

1.11

Garde Nationale

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trarza AC+0.00on par

Garde Nationale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trarza AC ↓

Garde Nationale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Trarza AC or draw

63%

Trarza AC or Garde Nationale

68%

Draw or Garde Nationale

69%

Winning margin

Trarza AC wins by 2+

11%

Garde Nationale wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Trarza AC 1+ goals

59%

Trarza AC 2+ goals

22%

Trarza AC 3+ goals

6%

Garde Nationale 1+ goals

63%

Garde Nationale 2+ goals

26%

Garde Nationale 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Trarza AC (draw refunded)

46%

Garde Nationale (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trarza AC at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Garde Nationale away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trarza AC attack 0.78 + Garde Nationale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Garde Nationale attack 0.89 + Trarza AC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Trarza AC scores more

31%

level

32%

Garde Nationale scores more

37%

Garde Nationale at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Garde Nationale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff