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Trarza AC vs Chemal — Premier League 2020

Trarza AC
Trarza AC
FT
0 – 3
Chemal
Chemal
3/11/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Stade Trarza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Trarza AC30%
×Draw29%
Chemal41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trarza AC
0.98
Chemal
1.21

Chemal creates 23% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 53 away

creates per match

Trarza AC
0.78
Chemal
1.30

allows per match

Trarza AC
1.11
Chemal
1.19

finishing

Trarza AC+0.00on par
Chemal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trarza AC ↓

Chemal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Trarza AC or draw
59%
Trarza AC or Chemal
71%
Draw or Chemal
70%

Winning margin

Trarza AC wins by 2+
11%
Chemal wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Trarza AC 1+ goals
62%
Trarza AC 2+ goals
26%
Trarza AC 3+ goals
8%
Chemal 1+ goals
70%
Chemal 2+ goals
34%
Chemal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trarza AC (draw refunded)
42%
Chemal (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trarza AC at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Chemal away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trarza AC attack 0.78 + Chemal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.98

Chemal attack 1.30 + Trarza AC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trarza AC scores more
30%
level
29%
Chemal scores more
41%

Chemal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chemal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Trarza AC 0–3 Chemal

Chemal beat Trarza AC 3-0 in Premier League on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Trarza in Rosso.