Trapani 2–2 Nuova Cosenza: Result & Stats | Serie B

Trapani

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Nuova Cosenza

11/10/2019

Serie B · Round 12Stadio Polisportivo Provinciale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Trapani49%

×Draw26%

Nuova Cosenza25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrapaniExpected goals in this matchNuova Cosenza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.98

Trapani

1.48

Nuova Cosenza

0.98

Trapani creates 51% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 134 away

1.42

creates per match

0.90

1.05

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Trapani

1.42

Nuova Cosenza

0.90

allows per match

Trapani

1.05

Nuova Cosenza

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trapani+0.00on par

Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trapani ↓

Nuova Cosenza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Trapani or draw

75%

Trapani or Nuova Cosenza

74%

Draw or Nuova Cosenza

51%

Winning margin

Trapani wins by 2+

24%

Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Trapani 1+ goals

77%

Trapani 2+ goals

43%

Trapani 3+ goals

19%

Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals

62%

Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals

26%

Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Trapani (draw refunded)

66%

Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trapani at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Nuova Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trapani attack 1.42 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nuova Cosenza attack 0.90 + Trapani defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Trapani scores more

49%

level

26%

Nuova Cosenza scores more

25%

Trapani at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Trapani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff